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Monthly Match Analysis: Will Ospreay vs. Kota Ibushi, Sakura Genesis 2021

3 years ago

Monthly Match Analysis: Will Ospreay vs. Kota Ibushi, Sakura Genesis 2021

By: Craig William, ProWrestlingMusings.com

New Japan Pro Wrestling is in a puzzling place right now as the strangeness of the company’s 2020 booking has carried over into 2021. The company has baffled many by ditching two of the world’s most aesthetically pleasing title belts; one of which was widely recognised as the most prestigious championship in all of wrestling. Add the controversy surrounding Will Ospreay, and the first ever match for the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship had a mountain of doubt to climb.

In any event, let’s take a look at the in-ring statistics from the first ever IWGP World Heavyweight Championship…

Clocking in at just over 30 minutes, this was a tightly contested match that only saw a 10% difference between the two competitors’ offence totals. The overall in-ring action was characterised by many reversals as both competitors struggled to take control of the contest.

Both men utilised about 60 strikes, 5 grapples, and hit double figures for strikedowns. The difference was Ospreay’s use of grinding submissions and high risk aerial offence; an interesting amalgamation of his new and former skill-sets. Interestingly, the only measured in-ring metric that Ibushi led in was taunts, or showmanship, which is curious. However, a lack of offence hasn’t always been a problem for Ibushi in the past.

Kota Ibushi’s wrestling style is usually characterised by his striking ability in an anecdotal sense. However, the statistics highlight another element of his performances. Statistically Ibushi almost always fights from underneath, meaning he almost always achieves less offence than his opponent. He achieved offensive percentages of 34%, 33%, 34% and 29% in his previous 4 singles matches; Naito at Castle Attack, White at Wrestle Kingdom, Naito at Wrestle Kingdom and White at Power Struggle. So, 46% is actually higher than usual for Kota Ibushi.

Kota Ibushi vs Will Ospreay Analysis 1 - NJPW Sakura Genesis 2021

So, what went wrong for Ibushi?

It wasn’t over-confidence as Ibushi always taunts and plays to the crowd and did so as he rose to the top of the New Japan mountain at Wrestle Kingdom. It’s not the lack of offence for the exact same reason. This is how he tends to wrestle and that may be the correct thread to pull. Did Ibushi actually get too much offence in against Ospreay and not manage to draw the match out long enough to trap Ospreay with his usual rope-a-dope set-ups?

This seems to be the case. The last big match Ibushi lost was to Jay White and although he was following this game plan against White, that contest only went 18:47. Thus, not long enough to lull White into a false sense of security. Additionally, Ibushi found himself against a man who out did him in offence total and quantity of reversals. Meaning, Ospreay essentially controlled the match and closed out Ibushi’s counter attempts.

A winning strategy for the now second IWGP World Heavyweight Champion, Will Ospreay.

Kota Ibushi vs Will Ospreay - Sakura Genesis 2021 - Analysis 2

This article first appeared in Monthly Puroresu Issue #4